|Thursday 8 October|
|18:30||Pre-dinner drinks – The Drawing Room Bar|
|19:15||Welcome – Clive Waller – Chairman – The Library
Lawrence Gosling, Group Editorial Director of Incisive Media, will give a brief talk about The British Heart Foundation
|19:30||Dinner – The Library|
|After Dinner Speaker – Tim Guinness, Founder and Chief Investment Officer, Guinness Asset Management
“Where will energy prices go over the next 5 years?”
|Friday 9 October|
|08:45||Welcome - Clive Waller – The Library|
|08:50||Introduction – Mike Faulkner, Chief Executive, P-Solve
“Where are we and how did we get here?”
|09:00||Mike Mabbut, Consultant, Thames River
“Ninja loans to triple A garbage.”
|09:25||Dan Norman, Former CEO Credit Suisse Asset Management (UK)
“Equities outperform in the medium run – but for whom?”
|09:50||Richard Hobbs, MD, Beachroft Regulatory Consulting
“Where were the regulators?”
|10:15||Questions and discussion|
|10:45||Tea/Coffee – The Hall|
|11:05||Danby Bloch, Chairman, Taxbriefs Ltd
“Efficient markets or economic Alchemy?”
|11:50||Paul Bradshaw, Chairman, Nucleus Financial
“Will old financial institutions need new business models?”
|12:30||Morning’s conclusions – Mike Faulkner|
|13:00||Lunch – The Conservatory|
|13:45||Panel Session – 5 minute presentations – All Speakers|
|14:15||Facilitated discussion and debate|
|14:45||Day’s conclusions – Mike Faulkner|
|15:00||Close – Clive Waller|
|Tea/Coffee – The Hall|
As you can see, the structure and content of this meeting will be very different from usual. So that members and guests have a good idea of what to expect, here is an outline of the day:
The credit crunch – just a cyclical bust or something different
Although there is a perception of some stability in World markets today, we must not forget that just 9 months ago, the financial world faced meltdown. Lehmans went bust and Bank of America mopped up Merrill Lynch. Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac had to be bailed out by the US Treasury; AIG appeared to be next to go. In the UK, the Government had to buy up 70% of RBS and two-thirds of Lloyds TSB. Little looked safe.
History is subjective. From Herodutus to Churchill, historians have reported events from a subjective viewpoint. The same is largely true of current affairs. We hear from economists, media experts, politicians, asset managers and bankers. They all have to answer to one paymaster or another. Few will say, “I have no idea what is going on!”
However, most of us don’t have a clue as to what this could mean. However, there is at least some doubt that we will see a similar kind of recovery that has followed crises in recent history.
The Investment Network will find the answers – well may be some!
1. Our experts on asset management, debt, risk and regulation will each give us their opinion on what occurred in the run up and during the credit crisis and up to the present day within their sector.
2. In the second session, we will look at how so-called emotional or behavioural economics played a part in events. Can markets be described as efficient? Are greed, emotions and testosterone the real drivers?
Then, we will consider what impact the crisis has had on our great financial institutions. Deep recessions can be the death of business models. Will they have to change? Will customer behaviour change?
3. Our facilitator will then bring together the different threads of the debate and, with the audience endeavour to define where the global economy is today, assuming there can be any form of consensus.
4. The final part of the day will be in the form of a panel debate/discussion.
We will ask our speakers to take account of the views of their fellow speakers and, without the time for prior preparation, give us their thoughts on the future in terms of the ranges of potential outcomes that they foresee.
5. If it is deemed that the conference achieved its objectives, we may run a second in 9/12 months time to attempt to forecast what products/services might be appropriate to meet future needs, in short, how we might make some money!